Four Defeats, Three of Them Close: Can Meg Lanning's Stars Finally Turn the Corner Against a Rising Heat?

There is a kind of losing run that tells you a side is not good enough, and there is another kind that tells you it is only a few balls away. The Stars, it seems, are in the second kind. After beating the Hurricanes by 18 runs on the opening weekend, they lost to the Strikers by 21, to the Scorchers by 15 when chasing only 125, to the Sixers by a single run here at Junction Oval, and then to the Scorchers again on Sunday, by six wickets at North Sydney Oval. One win from five leaves them seventh, on two points.

Meg Lanning has done her part. She has 202 runs from five innings: 71, 32, 41, 2 and 56. The trouble has been around her. In the defeats to the Scorchers, the Stars made 109 and 136 for 6, and in both games the middle order could not build on Lanning's start. Annabel Sutherland, who made 57 and took 3 for 34 in the opening win, has 65 runs in the four games since. When she fires with the bat, the Stars look a different side.

The bowling has been better than the results. Sophie Day has five wickets and took 2 for 17 when the Scorchers were held to 124 for 9. Kim Garth and Charlie Dean have four each. A possible XI, based on Sunday's side: Rhys McKenna, Lanning, Amy Jones, Sutherland, N Stalenberg, Dani Gibson, Dean, Georgia Prestwidge, Garth, Day, M Gibson. After four defeats the Stars may think about a change in the batting order, but that is only a guess.

The Heat's season could easily have gone the other way. They lost to the Sixers off the last ball of the game in their opener, and then the Thunder chased their 178 for 5 with 20 balls to spare. Since then they have beaten the Strikers by 14 runs and the Hurricanes by four wickets. Two wins from four puts them fourth, on four points, and a win here would take them to six points.

Charli Knott has been the story. She made 57 against the Sixers and then 104 off 61 balls against the Strikers, the kind of innings that changes a season. She has 183 runs from four games. Georgia Redmayne made 58 and 57 in the first two games, and Grace Harris hit 58 off 37 against the Thunder. If two of those three get going, the Heat can make 180 on most grounds.

The ball has been coming out well too. Against the Hurricanes on Saturday, L Bassingthwaighte took 3 for 16 and Lucy Hamilton 3 for 24, and the Hurricanes were held to 116 for 9. Sarah Glenn has given away only 98 runs in 15 overs this season, with four wickets. A possible XI, based on Saturday's side: Knott, Harris, Yastika Bhatia, Orla Prendergast, Redmayne, Hamilton, A O'Neil, S Ginger, Bassingthwaighte, Glenn, C White. The Heat may well stay with the same side.

Table as of Monday, November 9; the Tuesday and Wednesday games may change the positions.

Junction Oval has already hosted five games this season, and it has given us almost every kind of total: 192 for 4 by the Stars on the opening weekend, 188 for 3 by the Renegades on Saturday, but also 124 for 9 and 109 when the Scorchers and Stars met here. The pattern that stands out is that the side batting first has won four of the five. It may be that the pitch gets a little slower as the afternoon goes on, which helps the spinners in the second innings. With a 3:40 PM start, the first innings will be played in the best of the light. A total of around 160 may be a good one, and a captain who wins the toss could well choose to bat.

Lanning against the Heat's spinners in the middle overs may be where this game is won and lost. Glenn has been hard to score off all season, and if she can keep Lanning quiet between overs seven and 15, the pressure goes onto a Stars middle order that has not yet found its rhythm. At the other end, Knott against Garth and Day with the new ball is just as important. Knott likes to go hard early, and the Stars' best chance may be to take her wicket inside the powerplay.