Bailey's hypothetical is now a fact: Labuschagne is out, and it's a mercy

Selectors normally drop players by leaving their name off a list. George Bailey went one better on Monday: he told reporters a squad that has not been picked yet will not include Marnus Labuschagne.

Australia name their squad for the first Test against New Zealand, in Perth from December 9, after round four of the Sheffield Shield, which starts on Wednesday. Bailey did not wait. Labuschagne will not be considered for that Test, or for the rest of the four-match series.

That makes it the second time he has been dropped from the Test side in 17 months. The first came before last year's tour of the West Indies. The difference this time is the timing. The panel announced it early, in Bailey's words, to clear up "a bit of conjecture" so Labuschagne can captain Queensland without a selection drama following him to every net session.

It is a kind gesture. It is also the clearest possible sign that this was never close.

Take the two averages in that table and sit with them. After 30 Tests, Labuschagne averaged 60.82, a number that put him in conversation with Smith rather than behind him. After 68 Tests he averages 42.64. Losing 18 points of career average in 38 Tests is not a dip. It is a collapse in slow motion.

The South Africa tour was the last exhibit. He kept getting in and getting out: 37 and 37 in Durban, 14 and 39 in Gqeberha. Then Newlands, where Australia lost the decider by 176 runs and the series 2-1, and he was gone for 0 and 4. Bailey's complaint, that he "missed some opportunities, some promising starts", describes almost every innings of the last three years.

Thirties are the cruel part. A batter making ducks is obviously out of form. A batter making 37 looks one good session away from a hundred, so selectors wait. Australia waited 49 innings.

In September, before the South Africa series, Bailey was asked whether it was Labuschagne's last chance. He said no, then added that it was "a hypothetical, isn't it?" At that point the century drought stood at 43 innings.

Six innings and 131 runs later, the hypothetical arrived. A week ago head coach Andrew McDonald said the selectors would "reassess" their belief in him. Monday was the reassessment.

Nobody can say Australia were hasty. He was already out of the ODI side. The Test place survived on reputation for one more series, and the series answered the question.

Bailey left the way back open, even naming next year's tours of India and England. Read the rest of his answer, though, and the path looks steep.

The last time Labuschagne was dropped, he went back to Queensland and made five centuries in ten domestic innings across two formats. He was recalled for the Ashes and did not find that scoring again at Test level. Bailey admitted as much on Monday: he has "always been an incredible performer at first-class level".

That is the trap. Shield runs are what get you recalled, and Labuschagne has already shown they do not prove much in his case. Bailey also said he does not like "a bat-off or a bowl-off in a one-off game". So one big Shield hundred is not a ticket back. Labuschagne needs a whole season of them, and then he needs Test runs to follow, which is the part that went missing last time.

Bailey said "a handful of players" are well placed and the squad, expected to be 14 names, will be settled over the next week or so. The first piece is Steve Smith. He missed the Cape Town decider with a neck injury, has seen a specialist in New York, and is expected to face Queensland in round five from November 22 if he is signed off medically.

Smith at No. 3 is the obvious short-term fix. ESPNcricinfo also notes that Labuschagne's exit could help Josh Inglis keep his place. Further out, the debate about Sam Konstas at three, which David Warner pushed last month, now has an empty chair to argue over.

New Zealand will not mind. The No. 3 who once scored 10 hundreds in 36 innings will spend the four-Test series in Shield cricket.

This was the right call, made in the kindest way available. Telling Labuschagne a month early takes away the most draining part of a form slump, which is reading about your own selection every morning.

But do not mistake kindness for a guarantee. Bailey's door is open, and so was the door in 2025. Labuschagne walked back through it and averaged 23.66. He is 32, and the next recall will need a different method, not just a bigger pile of Shield runs.

The player who was world No. 1 is still in there, Bailey says. Australia have stopped waiting to find out. Now Labuschagne has to show them.