Nayar is right about Kohli's 100. The maths is even harsher than he says

Every time Virat Kohli gets to fifty, someone starts counting. He made 74 off 51 in the first ODI at Eden Park on Wednesday, and the 100-hundreds question was back by the evening.

On Friday, former India assistant coach Abhishek Nayar answered it on JioStar, alongside Cheteshwar Pujara. His answer was no. He wasn't being harsh. He just went with the calendar over the sentiment.

Retiring from Tests and T20Is took two of the three routes to 100 away from him. Every hundred he still gets has to come in a 50-over game, and India don't play many of those any more.

Count the rest of this New Zealand series, a dozen or so bilateral ODIs after it, and a deep run at the World Cup in southern Africa, and you get about 20 innings. At his career rate of roughly one hundred every five and a half innings, that's three or four more. That would leave him on 89 or 90.

The best case is no better. In 2018, Kohli made six ODI hundreds in 14 innings, about as good a year as an ODI batter has had. Spread that over 20 innings and you get eight or nine. He would still be on 94 or 95.

So Nayar isn't being pessimistic. He's being generous. To get to 100 before the World Cup ends, Kohli would need a far better run than his best-ever year, at 38, with gaps of weeks between series.

The schedule is just arithmetic, and anyone can do it. The more interesting thing Nayar said came at the end.

This is someone from inside the setup, a member of the coaching staff until last year, saying in public what people have only said privately: the 2027 World Cup is Kohli's finish line, and 100 hundreds would need him to keep going after it.

There's a fair counter-argument. Kohli dropped two formats so he could focus on one. He has still been making big scores in that one: the 139* against West Indies in September was his highest six count in an ODI innings, and Wednesday's 74 came off 51 balls. That isn't a player running on fumes. It is, though, a player whose remaining goal looks like a World Cup medal, not a career total.

If Kohli wins the trophy next year, nobody will care about 86 against 100. If he doesn't, the number will be the last thing left to play for, and it will need about three more years of ODIs to get there.

The same conversation turned to India's other worry for the World Cup. Pujara said India can't rely on Hardik Pandya alone because he "isn't fit throughout the year," and suggested a like-for-like backup.

Nayar went further than Pujara. He wants two seam-bowling all-rounders playing alongside two specialist quicks, pointing out that Gautam Gambhir "likes batters" and that the extra depth would help in South African conditions. That's the conversation India should be having before 2027.

On Kohli, Nayar is right, and the reason is a good one. The goal of 100 hundreds is out of reach because Kohli chose to play less, which also looks like what has kept him this good at 38. If he were still chasing 100, he'd still be playing Tests. He chose the World Cup instead.

The second ODI is on Saturday. If Kohli makes a hundred there, it will be number 87, and the counting will start all over again.