PAK vs SL, 1st Test — Day 3 Stumps: Sri Lanka 404/4, Trail by 30 After de Silva and Kusal Mendis Bat Through Two Sessions

On the second evening this Test looked like it belonged to Pakistan. Sri Lanka were 114 for 3, still 121 short of saving the follow-on, and the hard ball was due in the hands of Mohammad Abbas the next morning. By the third evening, the only question left was how much of a lead Sri Lanka might take. They batted 74.5 overs, scored 290 runs and lost one wicket.

Dhananjaya de Silva was 22 not out at the start of the day and 167 not out at the end. Kusal Mendis walked in just before the first drinks break and was still there when bad light came for the third day running, on 117. Between them, they batted through the whole of the afternoon and the evening, and Pakistan's lead of 320 is down to 30.

The first hour was the one Sri Lanka had to survive, and Kamindu Mendis and de Silva did it. Kamindu reached fifty off 119 balls, de Silva went past his off 67, and their stand reached 90 before Abbas, the one bowler who troubled anyone all day, found Kamindu's edge and Ghazi Ghori took the catch. Kamindu went for 58 off 131 at 155 for 4, in the 42nd over. Sri Lanka still needed 80 more to make Pakistan bat again.

That was the last wicket of the day. Kusal Mendis started slowly and then started hitting, with four sixes in his 117 off 188 balls, while de Silva kept rolling along at the other end with 20 fours. De Silva reached his hundred off 151 balls in the afternoon, and the pair passed 100 together off 168 balls. Sri Lanka scored 127 runs in the 30 overs between lunch and tea, the most of any session in the match so far. Kusal reached his own hundred off 152 balls after tea, de Silva went to 150 off 216, and in the last 12 overs before the light went, they added 56 more. Pakistan reviewed an lbw shout against de Silva in the 90th over and lost it.

Abbas bowled 20 overs in the day, seven of them maidens, and gave away 41 runs. Nobody else came close to that control. Razaullah conceded 95 in 16 overs and is now on 127 without a wicket. Arafat Minhas, the debutant who made 52 with the bat, bowled 20 overs of spin for 91 and no wickets. Saqib Khan, the other debutant who had taken two in eight balls on the second evening, bowled 15.5 overs without a breakthrough. The second new ball came in the 81st over, with Sri Lanka 301 for 4, and it went for runs too.

None of this means Pakistan bowled badly for most of the day. It means that once Abbas was rested, they had nothing else that asked a question, and against two set batters on a flat Rawalpindi pitch, that is a long day.

On day two we wrote that batting was getting easier as the ball softened. On day three it was simply easy. There was a little for Abbas in the first hour, and almost nothing for spin. Five of Pakistan's top eight passed fifty in the first innings, and now two Sri Lanka batters have hundreds. Three days in, this has been a very good pitch to bat on, and play has ended early for bad light every day.

Our preview leaned narrowly to Pakistan, and after the second day it looked a good call. After the third, a draw looks far more likely than a Pakistan win. We named Abbas with the new ball as the match-up to watch, and he is Pakistan's best bowler by a long way: 2 for 64 in 29 overs. What we did not see coming was a Sri Lanka middle order this solid. Win probabilities on CricIntel are built for T20 cricket, so we keep the Test call to the narrative.

Sri Lanka need 31 more to take the lead, and with de Silva and Kusal Mendis still in, they will want a lot more than that before they bowl again. Pakistan need wickets early, from Abbas and the 22-over-old second new ball. With two days left, and every day so far cut short by bad light, a result needs someone to collapse. The likeliest path to one is a big Sri Lanka lead and a nervous Pakistan second innings on day five.