PAK vs SL, 1st Test — Day 4 Stumps: Pakistan 434/9d & 57/1, Lead by 45 as Debutant Saqib Khan Takes 7 for 130

For two sessions on the third day, Pakistan could not find a way past Dhananjaya de Silva and Kusal Mendis. On the fourth morning it took Saqib Khan five balls. De Silva, on 167, pushed at one that swung away and was caught behind, and the stand of 249 was over before it had added a run. Kusal Mendis, 117 overnight, was dropped by Saud Shakeel at first slip off Saqib, and then edged the same bowler to Ghazi Ghori, diving, later in the same over. He had added two.

From 404 for 4, Sri Lanka were all out for 446. Six wickets fell for 42, five of them to Saqib in an unbroken spell of eight overs that cost 25 runs. A Test that looked like it was drifting towards a big Sri Lanka lead now has Pakistan 45 ahead, with nine wickets in hand and one day to go.

Saqib had 2 for 105 at the end of the third day, and had gone wicketless through it. He began the fourth by bowling in the channel outside off stump, swinging the ball away and nipping some back off the seam, and he did not let the batters off. Sonal Dinusha, on 20, drove at one and was caught in the cordon to give Saqib his first five-wicket haul in Tests, in his first bowling innings. Against the tail he went straighter: Asitha Fernando fended one through to Ghori, and Lahiru Kumara was lbw to another swinging ball.

His 7 for 130 are, according to ESPNcricinfo, the fourth-best innings figures by a Pakistan bowler on debut, and no Pakistan bowler has taken more than seven in an innings on debut. Ghori took six catches behind the stumps in the innings, three of them off Saqib this morning. Razaullah, who had gone for 127 without a wicket, finally had one when Milan Rathnayaka was caught in the deep by Tayyab Arif to end the innings.

Sri Lanka's last six wickets added 42 runs, and that is the difference between a lead that could have put Pakistan under pressure and one that barely counts. After two hundreds and a 249 stand, it is a hard way to end an innings. To their credit, the seamers came back hard. Fernando had Tayyab Arif lbw for 11 in the third over, and he, Kumara and Rathnayaka gave Pakistan very little: 57 runs came off 21.2 overs.

They should have had a second wicket. Not long after lunch, Kusal Mendis put down a straightforward chance off Rathnayaka with Azan Awais on 17. Awais and Mohammad Taha then batted on under the floodlights for several overs, until the umpires took the players off for bad light midway through the second session.

On the third day we called this an easy pitch to bat on. The fourth day said otherwise: seven wickets fell in 36.4 overs, and the seamers on both sides found swing and movement off the seam that had not been there the day before. Some of it was the conditions. The light has been poor every day, and bad light and rain have now cost this Test more than 100 overs, according to ESPNcricinfo's report. That is the main reason a result still looks unlikely.

Our preview leaned narrowly to Pakistan, and after the third day we said a draw looked far more likely than a Pakistan win. Pakistan are back in front now, but with only one day left, and every day cut short, the draw is still the likeliest result. We named Mohammad Abbas with the new ball as the match-up to watch, and he was Pakistan's best bowler on day three; today belonged to Saqib Khan, who we did not single out. Win probabilities on CricIntel are built for T20 cricket, so we keep this Test check to the story rather than the numbers.

Pakistan lead by 45 with nine wickets in hand. For a result, they would need to bat quickly in the morning, set a target and then bowl Sri Lanka out on a pitch that has started to help the seamers, all with the light likely to cut the day short again. Sri Lanka need early wickets to have any chance of their own. The more likely ending is a draw, and both sides then move on to the 2nd Test in Lahore from November 17.