Two Changed Sides, One Series Still Alive: Mount Maunganui and the Teams Behind the Teams

Hamilton gave us a toss and nothing else. In a short break in the rain, India won the toss, chose to bowl in what was meant to be a 40-over game, and then the rain came back and stayed. The third ODI was abandoned without a ball bowled. India still lead the five-match series 2-0, and New Zealand can no longer win it. Their run of 11 home series wins in a row, the second-longest streak in bilateral men's ODIs, is over.

That sounds like the end of something, and in one way it is. But there is still a series to save. If New Zealand win both games at Mount Maunganui, on Friday and again on Sunday, it ends 2-2. And the forecast for the Bay of Plenty is much kinder than the one that drowned Hamilton, so both games look likely to be played in full.

India have been the better side in the two games that did happen. They bowled New Zealand out for 185 at Eden Park and for 134 in Wellington. New Zealand have not yet reached 190 in this series. India also won seven of the eight tosses on this tour, calling tails every time, and tails has come up every time.

Hamilton was Shubman Gill's last ODI of the series. He has gone to Wellington to prepare for the first Test, which starts on November 19, and Shreyas Iyer takes over as captain. According to batting coach Sitanshu Kotak, Gill is joined at the Test camp by KL Rahul, Anshul Kamboj, Mohammed Siraj and Kuldeep Yadav, along with Kotak and bowling coach Morne Morkel. Kotak said the plan could still change, but that is how it looked. Head coach Gautam Gambhir stays with the one-day side, with the 2027 World Cup in mind.

That takes out the captain, the wicketkeeper and one of the four seamers who have done so much damage. India's squad for the last two ODIs still has plenty of choice, though: Ruturaj Gaikwad, Ishan Kishan, Tilak Varma, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Kumar Kushagra and Yash Thakur are all there. Most importantly, the three seamers who stay behind as Test net bowlers, Gurnoor Brar, Auqib Nabi and Arshdeep Singh, are with the ODI side until Sunday. Brar was Player of the Match in Wellington with 4 for 30.

A possible India XI, and it is only a guess with this many changes: Rohit Sharma, Ruturaj Gaikwad, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer (c), Ishan Kishan (wk), Tilak Varma, Axar Patel, Naman Dhir, Arshdeep Singh, Auqib Nabi, Gurnoor Brar. If India want a fourth seamer in place of Kamboj, Nitish Kumar Reddy or Yash Thakur could come in for one of the batters.

New Zealand have had to change even more. Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Henry Nicholls, Glenn Phillips and Nathan Smith have left for the Test camp in Wellington. Mitchell's loss is the big one: his 55 in Wellington was the only fifty New Zealand have made in the series. Lockie Ferguson is ruled out of both games with a calf injury, and Blair Tickner, hit by a Kamboj bouncer while batting in Wellington, has to sit out the mandatory seven-day stand-down period.

There is good news too. Matt Henry, who has not played since his collision with Devon Conway in training before the series, was told he should aim to return for this match. He and Kyle Jamieson were due to go to the Test camp after Hamilton, and both will now stay for this game. The squad for the fourth ODI is: Mitchell Santner (c), Finn Allen, Michael Bracewell, Kristian Clarke, Jacob Duffy, Matt Fisher, Dean Foxcroft, Mitchell Hay, Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Nick Kelly, Tim Seifert and Will Young.

From that group, a possible XI: Finn Allen, Will Young, Tim Seifert (wk), Nick Kelly, Mitchell Hay, Michael Bracewell, Dean Foxcroft, Mitchell Santner (c), Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry, Jacob Duffy. Hay could take the gloves instead of Seifert, and Fisher or Clarke may come in if Henry is not quite ready. This is a batting order that has played very little ODI cricket together, and against India's seamers that may be the hardest part of their day.

Every ODI pitch on this tour has been fresh and green, after a spring wetter than usual even for New Zealand. Auckland and Wellington gave the seamers bounce and movement, and Hamilton spent so long under covers that it never got to show what it had. Bay Oval is usually one of the better places in the country to bat, with a fast outfield and short square boundaries, and with drier weather forecast it may finally give us a proper one-day pitch.

If it does, the game changes. A first-innings total of 280 or more becomes possible, and India's seamers will not get the help that made them look unplayable in Wellington. If the ball still nips around in the first hour, though, the toss matters again, and the team batting second will again know what score it is chasing. The 3pm start means the second innings will be played under lights, and on this tour a little evening moisture has helped the bowlers as much as the batters.