The Last Day of a Long Tour: Bay Oval, Again, and What Each Side Wants to Take to Wellington

We are writing this before the fourth ODI, so we have to be honest about what we do not know. India came to Mount Maunganui 2-0 up in a five-match series, after wins at Eden Park and in Wellington and a washout in Hamilton. New Zealand could no longer win the series. Friday's game, on this same ground, will settle what Sunday is about.

If India won on Friday, this is a game for a 4-0 finish and a chance for the fringe players to stake a claim. If New Zealand won, it is 2-1 and Sunday is New Zealand's last chance to draw the series 2-2. Read the scoreline from Friday before you read anything else in this preview, because it changes how both sides will think about their XIs.

What does not change is the calendar. The first Test starts at the Basin Reserve on November 19, four days after this game. Both captains, Shreyas Iyer and Mitchell Santner, are leading sides that have already lost players to the Test camp, and both may want to keep their remaining Test players fresh.

Shubman Gill, KL Rahul and others went to Wellington after Hamilton to prepare for the Tests. Shreyas Iyer took over as captain for the last two ODIs, with Ishan Kishan as his vice-captain. Iyer had a quiet time with the bat in the first two games, and some reports said he would be under pressure to score runs as well as lead. Sunday is his second chance to do both.

The key for India is that the three seamers who are staying on as Test net bowlers, Gurnoor Brar, Auqib Nabi and Arshdeep Singh, are with the ODI squad until Sunday. Brar was Player of the Match in Wellington with 4 for 30, and these three have done much of the damage in a series where New Zealand have not yet reached 190. Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli are also still here.

A possible India XI, and it depends a lot on Friday: Rohit Sharma, Ruturaj Gaikwad, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer (c), Ishan Kishan (wk), Tilak Varma, Axar Patel, Naman Dhir, Arshdeep Singh, Auqib Nabi, Gurnoor Brar. If the series is already won, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Kumar Kushagra or Yash Thakur may get a game.

New Zealand lost Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Henry Nicholls, Glenn Phillips and Nathan Smith to the Test camp after Hamilton. Mitchell's 55 in Wellington was the only fifty New Zealand made in the first three games. Lockie Ferguson is out of both Mount Maunganui games with a calf injury, and Blair Tickner was stood down for seven days after being hit on the helmet in Wellington.

Matt Henry and Kyle Jamieson were kept back for Friday's game before joining the Test squad. Whether both play again on Sunday, four days before a Test, is a fair question, and New Zealand may decide to protect at least one of them. If they do, Jacob Duffy, Matt Fisher and Kristian Clarke are the other seam options.

A possible XI, based on the squad for the last two games: Finn Allen, Will Young, Tim Seifert (wk), Nick Kelly, Mitchell Hay, Michael Bracewell, Dean Foxcroft, Mitchell Santner (c), Kyle Jamieson, Matt Henry, Jacob Duffy. If Henry or Jamieson is rested, Fisher or Clarke could come in. This batting line-up has played very little together, and every innings it gets against India's seamers is useful for what comes next.

Bay Oval is usually one of the better places in New Zealand to bat, with a fast outfield and short square boundaries. After a wet spring, the pitches on this tour have been greener than usual, and the seamers have had help early in the day. Two games in three days at the same ground means Sunday's pitch may be a little drier, and possibly a touch slower, than Friday's.

That gives both sides a clue. Whatever happened on Friday, both captains will have seen how the ball behaved in the first ten overs and under lights in the evening. If Friday was a high-scoring game, a total near 280 may again be par. If the seamers ruled, the toss may matter again. Before this week, India had won two of their three ODIs at this ground.